Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $970,860$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,010,754.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 150.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,010,754.4\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $36,195$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,675.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 129.0)}}\) (asimptote \(35,675.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $30,707$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,459,832$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,681,528.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 204.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,681,528.3\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $39,632$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,010.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 200.7)}}\) (asimptote \(45,010.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $131,415$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,577,177$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,225,733.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 150.6)}}\) (asimptote \(6,225,733.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $176,628$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{171,099.5}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 127.9)}}\) (asimptote \(171,099.5\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $535,711$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $558,668$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{509,690.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.1)}}\) (asimptote \(509,690.5\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $15,592$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,278.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 117.2)}}\) (asimptote \(14,278.4\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,826$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $197,391$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{225,042.1}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 171.6)}}\) (asimptote \(225,042.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,756$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,858.0}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 163.8)}}\) (asimptote \(15,858.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,831$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $145,492$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{143,979.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.9)}}\) (asimptote \(143,979.5\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,992$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,199.6}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 143.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,199.6\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,904$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,362,249$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,372,947.8}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 181.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,372,947.8\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $37,633$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,255.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 157.7)}}\) (asimptote \(36,255.7\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $74,914$ on 2020-12-05
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $87,213$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90,175.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 205.4)}}\) (asimptote \(90,175.1\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,833$ on 2020-12-05
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,833.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 197.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,833.3\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,097$ on 2020-12-05