Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $970,860$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,010,754.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 150.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,010,754.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $36,195$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,675.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 129.0)}}\) (asimptote \(35,675.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,707$ on 2020-12-05

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,459,832$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,681,528.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 204.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,681,528.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $39,632$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,010.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 200.7)}}\) (asimptote \(45,010.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $131,415$ on 2020-12-05

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,577,177$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,225,733.3}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 150.6)}}\) (asimptote \(6,225,733.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $176,628$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{171,099.5}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 127.9)}}\) (asimptote \(171,099.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $535,711$ on 2020-12-05

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $558,668$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{509,690.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 119.1)}}\) (asimptote \(509,690.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15,592$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,278.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 117.2)}}\) (asimptote \(14,278.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,826$ on 2020-12-05

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $197,391$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{225,042.1}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 171.6)}}\) (asimptote \(225,042.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,756$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,858.0}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 163.8)}}\) (asimptote \(15,858.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,831$ on 2020-12-05

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $145,492$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{143,979.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.9)}}\) (asimptote \(143,979.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,992$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,199.6}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 143.2)}}\) (asimptote \(9,199.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,904$ on 2020-12-05

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,362,249$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,372,947.8}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 181.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,372,947.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $37,633$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,255.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 157.7)}}\) (asimptote \(36,255.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $74,914$ on 2020-12-05

Paraguay⮸

Population $7,132,538$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $87,213$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{90,175.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 205.4)}}\) (asimptote \(90,175.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,833$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,833.3}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 197.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,833.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,097$ on 2020-12-05

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Chile recovered 88%
Bolivia recovered 80%
Venezuela recovered 64%
Guyana recovered 34%

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $104,177$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,142.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 173.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103,142.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $916$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{930.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 165.2)}}\) (asimptote \(930.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,382$ on 2020-12-05

Guyana⮸

Population $786,552$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,637$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,933.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 206.9)}}\) (asimptote \(5,933.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $151$ on 2020-12-05

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{189.1}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 213.3)}}\) (asimptote \(189.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $753$ on 2020-12-05